Fixed rate ends in August. Broker sent through a product transfer at 5.42% for five years last week. Also got a remortgage offer at 5.18% from a different lender but that involves a full application, valuation, the usual.
MPC meets on 18 June. Nobody seems to expect a cut but CPI came in at 2.8% in April which is heading in the right direction. If they hold again the market has probably already priced it in. If they cut, five year fixes could drop 10 to 20 basis points within a few weeks.
So the question. Is there any realistic scenario where waiting two weeks saves me more than the risk of losing the current offers? Most mortgage offers are valid for three to six months so in theory I could lock in the 5.18% now and still benefit if rates drop before completion.
Anyone else sitting on the fence right now?
I tried to time a remortgage once, back in about 2014 when rates were falling steadily. Waited three weeks for an MPC meeting, rates went sideways, and by the time I went back to the broker the product I wanted had been pulled. Ended up paying 0.15% more than I would have done if I had just locked in when the offer first landed.
The 5.18% you have been offered is already below the current average five year fix, which tells me that lender is pricing in at least some expectation of stability or a small cut. If rates do drop after the MPC meeting on the 18th, most lenders take two to four weeks to feed that through to new products anyway, by which point you are well into your application window.
I would lock it in now and treat any post-decision drop as a bonus you can chase if your broker is on the ball. The Halifax and Lloyds cuts last week were tiny, 12 basis points or so. Not the kind of movement worth gambling your existing offer on 
The swap rates have been telling us the answer for weeks, five year swaps are sitting around 4.1% and have barely moved since mid May, which means the market has already priced in a hold on the 18th and probably at least one more hold after that. The CPI drop to 2.8% is welcome but it is not enough on its own, the BoE will want to see wages cooling further before they move and the Iran situation is still adding uncertainty to energy prices going into autumn. I have been watching this closely because my son is trying to get a mortgage agreed for his first purchase (whole separate saga) and his broker said basically the same thing, lock in now because even if there is a cut later this year it will be 25 basis points at most and lenders will take their time passing it through. The spread between base rate and retail mortgage rates is STILL historically wide which tells you lenders are not in a hurry to compete on price. I would take the 5.18% and move on, there is no scenario where waiting saves you meaningful money on a residential mortgage.
Swap rates are one thing. What lenders do with them is another. The five year swap at 4.1% should in theory give us five year fixes comfortably below 5% across the board. Instead we are still seeing 5.2% to 5.4% for anything above 75% LTV. The spread has widened over the past year, not narrowed.
Halifax and Lloyds dropped rates last week, fine, but only on low LTV products that most people refinancing at this stage cannot access. Someone coming off a 2% fix onto a 5.4% product transfer does not care that 60% LTV deals have ticked down by 0.12%.
The MPC decision on the 18th is a non-event as far as mortgage pricing goes. Nobody is cutting on the back of a hold. The question is whether lenders start competing on margin through the summer or keep banking the spread.
@CyclingChap47, I think you are probably right that the MPC on the 18th is a non-event for pricing, but the dynamic after it might be more interesting than the decision itself. A broker I use locally mentioned that several lenders have summer product launches pencilled in for late June and early July, and that these are typically where the competitive repricing happens. Not because of any rate cut, just because the purchase season creates volume and lenders want the business.
The spread point is well made though. When I remortgaged in 2014 the gap between base and retail was under 2%. Now it is pushing 1.5% to 1.7% even on the keenest products, which is the lenders quietly rebuilding margin after the squeeze they took in 2021 and 2022. Whether that reverses depends on whether anyone blinks first. Halifax moving by 0.12% is a toe in the water, not a cannonball
@greenwhistle_hants I think the point you are making about the aftermath is the key one, the decision itself is completely baked in now, nobody is expecting a cut next week. What I find more interesting is whether the Nationwide data showing the first monthly dip of the year changes the conversation at the August meeting. If you are on the MPC and you can see prices going backwards AND swap rates already sitting at 4.1% for five years, at what point do you conclude the current stance is doing more than enough?? The mortgage approvals data for April was actually pretty strong (65,900 for purchases), so you have this weird split where activity is picking up but prices are starting to soften, which feels like a transition moment rather than a crisis. My gut says August is when we get the first proper signal on direction, the June meeting will be about tone in the minutes more than anything.
Quick update on this. Locked in the product transfer yesterday at 5.42% for five years. Not thrilled about it but the broker confirmed most lenders have already started pricing in a potential rise to 4% from July onwards, so the idea that waiting would bring anything better felt increasingly like wishful thinking.
The 5.18% remortgage offer was still on the table but the valuation fee, legal costs and the three week processing time added up. If the MPC on the 18th produces hawkish language, even a hold could push new product pricing up within days. Did not fancy being mid-application when that happened.
Sometimes the best decision is the one you stop thinking about.