I was doing my usual Monday afternoon Rightmove browse of the New Forest area and noticed something I have not seen since about 2019. There are at least a dozen properties in my village and the surrounding parishes that have been listed for 90 days or more with no sale agreed. A couple have been on since February. These are not oddball properties either, they are standard three bed semis and detached bungalows in the £350k to £450k range.
The mortgage approvals data for May showed a pretty sharp drop, down 11% year on year, and I wonder if what I am seeing locally is just the visible symptom of that. Agents still seem to be listing at optimistic prices and then sitting on their hands. One property near me was reduced by £25k last week after four months with no viewings according to the neighbour.
Is anyone else noticing a similar pattern in their area or is this just a New Forest thing? I know the south coast has its own dynamics but the national data seems to suggest this is broader.
Green same thing here in the East Midlands and I have been tracking it since I started that Savills thread last week. There is a four bed detached about half a mile from me that went on at £425k in March, reduced to £399k in May, then again to £385k last week and it is STILL sitting there with no sale agreed. The agent told my son (who enquired about it partly because I told him to and partly out of genuine interest) that they have had three viewings in four months which is dire for a family house in a decent village with a good school. My son cannot afford it anyway but I wanted to know what the feedback was, the agent said the viewers all thought it needed a new kitchen and the price did not reflect that.
I have been looking at Rightmove sold prices in the area and the gap between asking price and sale price seems to be widening noticeably, stuff that sold in January and February was going at 95% to 97% of asking but the ones completing now seem to be closer to 90% to 92%. That is consistent with the Savills minus 2% call and honestly I think they might be conservative on that because the approvals data is ugly and the BoE holding at 3.75% is not helping as much as people expected. The mortgage rate cuts are coming through but buyers seem to be sitting on their hands waiting for more, which creates a self fulfilling prophecy where nobody moves and prices soften further.
The question I keep asking myself is whether this is a genuine correction or just a seasonal blip that sorts itself out by September. My gut says the former but my gut has been wrong before.
Green, I am seeing the same thing at the bottom end of the market too, which is where I am looking. I have been watching a handful of properties in Northumberland and County Durham on Rightmove since my thread a couple of weeks ago and two of them have had price reductions since then. One was a stone terrace in a small village that dropped from £85k to £75k and has still not gone under offer.
From my perspective as a potential buyer it is genuinely confusing. Part of me thinks I should wait because if prices are softening then my £80k will go further in six months. But then I read about rental costs going up and I am paying £650 a month here which is money I will never see again. Dave’s point about the self fulfilling prophecy is exactly what worries me, everyone waits, nothing moves, and the market just sort of freezes.
Thank you
I went back through my bookmarked properties last night and did a rough tally. Of the twelve I originally mentioned, eight have been listed for over 90 days and three of those have had at least one price reduction. The remaining four are all asking above £400k and none have dropped a penny, which is either confidence or denial depending on your perspective.
The mortgage approval figures from May rather back this up. Down 11% year on year and 15% on the previous month is not a small wobble, that is a meaningful pullback in activity. If fewer people can get approved, or fewer are even applying, those listings are going to keep sitting there.
Elspeth, interesting that you are seeing the same at the sub-£100k end. I would have assumed that bracket would move more quickly since it is cash buyer territory in many cases. Perhaps it is the rural factor more than the price 
Green the approval numbers are sobering but from where I am sitting as the father of someone trying to buy his first place this is actually not bad news at all. My lad viewed a three bed semi in Long Eaton last week that has been on since March, no chain, no offers, and the agent practically begged him to put something in. The asking price is £215k which is about right for the area BUT it has been reduced once already from £225k and the agent hinted that the vendor would consider something around £200k which is a 12% haircut from the original ask. That would not have happened twelve months ago.
The question is whether buyers like my son should be jumping on these stale listings now or whether the smart money says wait another three months and see if things soften further. Nationwide showed the first monthly price drop of the year in June and if the approval trend continues through the summer you would think there has to be another leg down. BUT (and this is the bit I keep going back to) if rates keep falling as part of this so called price war, more buyers come back into the market and the window closes. So you could easily talk yourself into waiting forever.
I told him to put an offer in at £195k and see what happens. Worst they can say is no.
Dave, in theory yes. In practice sellers who have been sitting for four months tend to dig in rather than fold. They convince themselves the market is wrong and the right buyer is just around the corner. I went through this when I bought my place. On for five months, one reduction, vendor rejected two offers below asking then finally caved when the agent told her she would lose the only interested party. Took seven months total. Your lad might get lucky at £195k but he should be prepared for a long silence followed by a grudging counteroffer at £208k.
Chap I take your point about sellers digging in but I am now watching a real time experiment unfold on my street. The four bed detached I mentioned has just been reduced AGAIN, third time since March, it started at £375k and is now at £339k and I still do not think it will sell because the kitchen needs ripping out and the garden backs onto the recycling centre access road which nobody mentions until you visit. That is a 10% haircut in four months and counting. The Nationwide data showing two flat months in a row is starting to feel generous honestly because what I am seeing locally is not flat, it is soft and getting softer. My lad is sitting tight and I think that is the right call for now, let the summer play out and see where we are by October.
Friday lunchtime update on my ongoing street experiment. The four bed detached has been reduced AGAIN, now down to £349,950 from the original listing of £395,000 back in March. That is over 11% off in four months and still no takers as far as I can tell. The Rightmove listing now says “price adjusted to reflect current market conditions” which is agent speak for the sellers have finally accepted reality. Given those approval numbers from May being down 11% year on year this is not exactly surprising, there just are not enough buyers out there for overpriced stock. My lad is watching it with interest but I have told him to wait, if it has come down 45k in four months who says it stops here? The agent rang me this week asking if I knew anyone looking, which tells you everything about where the power sits right now.
Monday morning Rightmove check and the four bed detached is STILL listed at £349,950, so no further reduction over the weekend. That is now 118 days on the market and three price drops. Saw the Rightmove data this morning saying asking prices nationally have dropped 1% in July which is apparently five times the usual seasonal dip, and honestly that tallies with what I am seeing locally. The three bed semi further up my street which was listed at £275k in May has also gone to Under Offer according to the listing but the sold price data on Zoopla suggests a comparable one two doors down went for £248k last year so I suspect a decent reduction there too.
What I keep coming back to is who is actually buying at these prices. Mortgage approvals down 15% month on month, rates stuck at 3.75%, sales agreed down 6% on last year. You can see why sellers are sitting on Rightmove for months, there just are not enough buyers willing to pay what vendors think their house is worth. The question is whether vendors start getting realistic or whether we just see more and more stale listings building up through the autumn.
Dave, your street experiment continues to be one of the more useful data points on this forum. Things are looking similar down here in the New Forest, possibly worse. I mentioned last week that eight of my twelve bookmarked properties had been listed for over 90 days. I checked again this evening and two of those have now been withdrawn entirely, no sale agreed, just gone. The rest are still sitting there.
One property in particular caught my eye. A three bed cottage near Brockenhurst that was listed at £525,000 in April. Reduced to £499,950 in June. Still listed at that price today with no viewers booked according to the agent (I know the agent slightly through cycling). The owner apparently will not go below £490k because that is what he paid for it in 2021. Which tells you everything about the psychology of this market.
The Rightmove data about asking prices falling five times the seasonal norm does not surprise me at all. What surprises me is that it took this long for the numbers to catch up with what anyone browsing property portals could see with their own eyes.
Tuesday morning and I have done my usual check, the four bed detached is unchanged at £349,950, day 119 on the market now. No new photos, no new description, nothing. I am starting to wonder if the vendor has just given up caring because the agent certainly has, the listing still says ‘recently reduced’ which was accurate about three weeks ago but not now. Meanwhile the three bed semi two doors down which went on at £265,000 in May has also gone quiet, no price change but I noticed the Rightmove listing has been refreshed (new lead photo, same house, just a different angle) which is usually the agent trying to bump it back up the search results without actually reducing the price. Classic move.
Saw the Rightmove data this morning saying asking prices dropped 1% in July nationally which is apparently much sharper than the usual seasonal dip. That tracks with what I am seeing locally, there are properties here that have been reduced twice and STILL are not generating viewings according to the agents I have spoken to. My son looked at a two bed terrace in Loughborough last week priced at £165,000 and the agent told him they had only had three viewings in six weeks. SIX WEEKS. For a two bed terrace at that price point. That should be bread and butter first time buyer territory.
The question I keep coming back to is whether vendors are going to start accepting reality or whether we are going to see a wave of withdrawals through the autumn. Anyone else seeing properties just quietly disappearing from listings rather than reducing again?
Three viewings in six weeks for a two bed terrace at £165k. That is not a pricing problem, that is a demand problem. The 1% drop in asking prices nationally is meaningless if buyers are not even walking through doors. Agents can refresh photos and tweak descriptions all they want but the fundamentals are not there.
To your question about withdrawals vs reductions, I think you will see both. The ones who can afford to wait will just pull the listing and try again in spring. The ones who need to sell, probate, divorce, relocation, will have to keep cutting. Either way the headline stock numbers on Rightmove will stay high because the new listings keep coming.
Your son should be putting in a cheeky offer at £150k and seeing what happens. Nothing to lose.
Same picture on the South Coast. Two detacheds on my road have been listed since April and neither has had a board change. RICS numbers last month were grim, net balance of minus 29 on new enquiries and minus 32 on agreed sales. That is not a market correcting, that is a market stalling. Vendors will not accept reality until they absolutely have to.
Steve, Dave, the picture is consistent down here too. I cycled past the row of agents on Lymington High Street on Saturday and counted the window cards. Three of them had more properties displayed than I have ever seen, which tells you all you need to know about stock levels versus actual sales. One agent has started putting little “price adjusted” stickers on the cards rather than showing the original and reduced price side by side, which I thought was a nice bit of creative shame management.
Dave, the Rightmove 1% drop figure is interesting because it is the national average. In areas like the New Forest where asking prices were already stretched to breaking point I suspect the real adjustment is closer to 3 to 4 percent from peak, it is just happening in slow motion because vendors here tend to have the luxury of waiting. As Steve says, they will not accept it until they have to.
PS I notice nobody is talking about the mortgage rate war that is supposedly happening. Rates have dropped a fraction but it does not seem to be translating into actual buyer confidence, at least not locally.
Wednesday morning check and the four bed detached is STILL at £349,950, day 121 now. I actually laughed when I opened the listing because they have added a line to the description saying ‘competitively priced for the area’ which is doing some very heavy lifting given three price drops and four months on the market. I notice the photos are also slightly different, they have cropped the front garden shot differently, presumably to hide the fact the hedge is now overgrown. Small things but it tells you the agent is trying SOMETHING, just not the one thing that would actually work which is another £15k off.
The Rightmove data that came out this week is worth looking at though because it confirms what we have all been seeing anecdotally. Average asking prices down 1% in July which does not sound like much until you realise the normal July dip is about 0.2%. That is FIVE TIMES the seasonal norm. And this is asking prices remember, not sold prices, so the actual agreed prices are likely worse. The disconnect between what sellers think their house is worth and what buyers are willing to pay has not been this wide since 2019 at least.
What I keep wondering is whether there is a tipping point where all these stale listings suddenly adjust at once. Right now each seller thinks they are the exception, their house is the one that just needs the right buyer to come along. But if September arrives and half the street is still unsold, does the psychology shift? Or do they just take them off and wait until spring and the whole cycle repeats???
They delist. Every time. I watched this happen on my street last autumn. Two houses sat for months, both pulled in November, both back in February at almost identical prices. One has since sold (£12k under asking). The other is still there.
The 1% Rightmove number is misleading anyway because it only measures new listings. It tells you nothing about the repricing behaviour of existing stock. The real story is in the gap between asking and agreed, and nobody publishes that in real time.
Sellers do not have a tipping point. They have an anchor. Whatever they paid plus whatever they spent on the kitchen is the floor in their head, and no amount of market data shifts it. The only thing that forces a sale is a life event, divorce, death, job move. Everything else just becomes “we will wait.”
Thursday morning and day 122 for the four bed detached, still at £349,950, still no board change, still no new photos. At this point I am genuinely wondering whether the vendor has forgotten the property is listed. The Rightmove description still has that desperate line about being “competitively priced for the area” which I mentioned yesterday, and I noticed they have now added a note about “no onward chain” which is at least something but probably tells you everything about how few viewings they are getting.
Saw the mortgage rate data this morning and the two year fix has jumped to 5.57%, biggest daily move since April apparently, driven by the Middle East situation. Five year fix is 5.60% which is actually HIGHER than the two year now which feels completely backwards. If you are a buyer who was on the fence about stretching to £350k, those numbers just pushed you firmly off it. Every quarter point rise knocks something like £15k off what a buyer on median earnings can borrow (rough maths, someone check me on that), so the pool of people who can even afford this house is shrinking by the week.
Nationwide says prices were flat in June for the second month running, annual growth at 2.2% which sounds fine until you remember inflation is running above that so in real terms you are losing money. Mortgage approvals at the lowest since November 2023. I keep coming back to the same question, at what point does the vendor on this four bed accept that £349,950 is NOT the right price and take the hit? Because the market is not coming to them.
They wont accept it. Thats the whole problem. The rate jump this morning to 5.57% on a two year fix is significant but it does not change vendor psychology. Sellers with no urgency will sit, delist, wait. Sellers with urgency will cut, but only to a point where they can still clear their own mortgage. The ones in between just stay listed at the wrong price for months, exactly like your four bed. 122 days is not an outlier any more, its becoming the norm.
The Nationwide flat figure is interesting though. Two months of zero growth and mortgage approvals at a three year low. That is a market that is stalling, not correcting. Correction requires volume and there is no volume. Just stale listings and wishful thinking.
Friday morning Rightmove check and the four bed detached is STILL at £349,950, day 123 now. I nearly fell off my chair because for about thirty seconds it looked like the listing had been removed, turns out Rightmove was just being slow to load on my phone. Still there, still the same four photos (the one of the garden with the wheelie bin in shot is really doing the property no favours), still no board change outside the house as far as I can tell from the street view update.
What got me thinking this morning though is the rate news. Two year fixes averaging 5.57% now, five year at 5.60%, and the Bank sitting pat at 3.75% with no sign of moving. If you are a buyer looking at a £350k property that means your monthly payment on a 75% LTV two year fix is roughly £1,550 a month give or take. Six months ago that same mortgage would have been closer to £1,400. That is £150 a month or £1,800 a year that has just evaporated from the buyer pool’s affordability. And the vendor thinks holding at £349,950 is the smart play??
I said weeks ago this house needs to come down to £315,000 to generate genuine interest and I stand by that. The comparable sale two streets over went for £308,000 in March. At some point reality has to kick in but I am starting to wonder whether this vendor will just delist again in September and relist in the spring at (wait for it) £349,950. Would anyone actually be surprised at this point?
Dave, the vendor is only half the problem. The agent has had this listing for 123 days. At what point does a competent agent sit the vendor down and say this is not going to sell at this price. The answer is never, because the agent wants the instruction and is hoping the market magically recovers.
The rate data you quoted is the real story though. 5.57% on a two year fix. That is not a blip, that is a structural shift upwards driven by things nobody in this market can control. And yet agents are still listing at 2024 prices. Three agents on my road have sent me leaflets this month saying “thinking of selling? demand is strong.” Demand is not strong. Demand is collapsing. Mortgage approvals are down, house price growth is flatlining at 2.7% nationally and heading lower. Someone needs to say this out loud.