Zoopla published their March index last week. Annual house price growth steady at 1.3%, but the commentary notes the market is increasingly reliant on a smaller pool of committed buyers. Rental growth was 2.0% annually in February, with the North East and North West leading at 4.4% and 3.3% respectively. Given that mortgage product availability has fallen from around 8,500 to 7,000 and average rates have moved sharply upward since early March, the buyer pool is likely to contract further in the coming months. Those who must transact will, but discretionary movers may sit tight.
The shrinking buyer pool point rings very true down here. I keep a casual eye on Rightmove for the SO41 and SO42 postcodes and the number of properties sitting unsold for 8 weeks plus has crept up noticeably since February. A couple of the local agents have started doing “price adjusted” labels which is estate agent for “nobody bit at the first number.”
The stamp duty change has to be part of it. A young couple at our allotment were telling me last month they had been about to put an offer in on a starter place in Brockenhurst, then worked out the stamp duty bill would be nearly five thousand pounds more than it would have been six months ago. They have shelved the whole thing for now. That is exactly the kind of buyer who disappears from the stats.
I suspect annual growth of 1.3% nationally masks some quite stark regional variation. The New Forest has always been its own little bubble but even here the air is coming out slowly.